LMAX Digital volumes got off to a decent start this week. Total notional volume for Monday came in at 369 million, 3% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $196 million on Monday, just 1% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $143 million, 12% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $6,534 and average position size for ether at 2,817.

Volatility is showing some signs of life after trading to yearly and multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $594 and $73 respectively.

It’s worth noting, the month of November has been mostly positive for crypto assets.

Global markets have run into a consolidation phase, which is to be expected heading into tomorrow’s FOMC event risk. And naturally, with global markets in consolidation, so too is crypto.

As things stand, a more dovish leaning Fed will likely inspire an intense wave of risk on flow, which in turn, will be supportive of crypto assets. Anything that leans hawkish, will likely trigger another wave of risk off flow, which in turn, will weigh on crypto assets.

However, we do believe the argument that bitcoin should be trading much lower on a hawkish Fed decision is less compelling today than it was earlier in the year.

Earlier in the year, bitcoin was very much exposed to weakness after a parabolic record run warning of the next major correction. Now that this is out of the way, the idea of bitcoin trading lower on a hawkish Fed that opens flight to safety, is less compelling.

After all, bitcoin’s economics dictate that it should be in demand in periods of risk off as a store of value asset. And so, while we believe we still could see some bitcoin selling in risk off, we also believe there will now be sizable demand into any additional dips.

Interestingly enough, data shows the ratio of BTC supply on exchanges at its lowest levels since 2018, the year of the last macro bear market bottom.